https://soundcloud.com/zafar-stocks/pakistan-stock-exchange-market-behavior-9-february-2016-with-future-prediction-zafar-securities
Tuesday 9 February 2016
Zafar Stocks PSX 100 Index (Zafar Securities - Pakistan Stock Exchange Broker)
ZSL, Market Recap Feb-9-2016
The MPC of the SBP in its first monetary policy review, kept the discount rate unchanged at 6.5% for the next two months. That became a trigger for rally in banks as the decision was positive for spreads, when seen in the context to the future direction of inflation; subsequently from 30th January, 2016 till yesterday’s close MCB (+8.28%), HBL (14.69%), UBL (+9.32%), NBP (+7.49%), ABL (5.61%) and BAFL (+11.23%) were rallying hard. Amidst growing confidence it was only normal to expect banks to extend previously posted gains yet these names took a U-turn amid profit taking.
The 100 index closed down 262.02 points (-0.81%) to close at 32,444.20. Market participation went down to 148mn shares vs. 152mn shares in the previous session. Major contribution to the downside came from NBP, MCB, PSO, UBL and EFERT. From turn over perspective retail favorites like PIAA, JSCL, SNGP, NBP and PACE remained on top. Other than financial sector, telecommunication, industrials, healthcare, energy and materials also witnessed profit taking only to drag the index further down.
On a consolidated basis, MCB posted NPAT of PkR 4.85bn (EPS: PkR4.35) during 4QCY15 vs. NPAT of PkR6.23bn (EPS: PkR5.59) in 4QCY14, down by 22%YoY. The result (-27%QoQ), which is the worst quarterly performance since 4QCY13.
We reiterate 32,800 as the “mother of all resistances” with a potential to send market back to square one.
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